Byron Donalds and John James would each make history on Nov. 3. Polls show Donalds ahead in Florida and James trailing in Michigan.

Voters in Florida and Michigan will decide next week whether two Black Republicans, Rep. Byron Donalds and Rep. John James, become governors of two of the nation's largest states. Americans have elected only three Black governors in the country's history: Virginia's Douglas Wilder, Massachusetts' Deval Patrick and Maryland's Wes Moore. All three are Democrats. The Associated Press reports that eight Black major-party candidates are running for governor this year. Donalds and James would be the first Black Republicans elected to the office. Neither would be the first Black governor of Florida or of Michigan.

Donalds has the clearer path. The Naples congressman won Florida's Republican primary on Aug. 18 with President Donald Trump's endorsement. Florida hasn't elected a Democratic governor since Lawton Chiles in 1994, and Gov. Ron DeSantis is term-limited. Donalds faces Democrat David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who switched parties. The Cook Political Report moved the race to "Lean Republican" on Oct. 1, and prediction markets give Donalds roughly an 81% to 87% chance of winning.

The polls support that edge, though the margin varies. Averages show Donalds ahead by about 5 to 6 points. A University of North Florida poll taken Oct. 12-19 found him up only 49% to 47%, within its margin of error of about 2.8 points. The same poll found Jolly leading among independents 55% to 38%, but Donalds' supporters were more committed. Among Donalds backers, 77% said they "strongly" support him, 10 points above Jolly's. Some other surveys have shown Donalds up by 8 to 12 points, and one Democratic-sponsored poll had the race tied.

James faces tougher odds. The Michigan congressman won his primary on Aug. 4 by nearly 15 points, also with Trump's endorsement. He is running for an open seat held by Democrat Gretchen Whitmer, who is term-limited. His opponent is Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who has won statewide twice. Independent Mike Duggan, the former Detroit mayor, left the race in May. That turned a three-way contest into a two-way one that favors Benson. RealClearPolling's average has her ahead 50.5% to 43.3%. A Detroit News/Glengariff poll taken Oct. 19-22 had her up 51% to 45%, and Polymarket put her chances at about 92%.

The campaigns have focused on costs and on Trump. James has proposed a "comprehensive audit of all expenditures," a repeal of the state's clean-energy mandate, and a 25% cut to the 4.25% income tax in his first year as the start of a phase-out. At an October debate, Benson tied gas prices to what she called "a reckless war in Iran" and said James had backed cuts to SNAP and Medicaid. In the Glengariff poll, 37% of voters viewed Benson favorably and 30% unfavorably. For James, it was 35% favorable and 37% unfavorable.

Both men have said little about the historic angle. Donalds didn't mention his race in his primary-night speech. "Florida is a great meritocracy in America," he said, adding, "I'll let you guys write about that." He has since said the media would celebrate the milestone more if he were a Democrat. Democrats such as Stacey Abrams, who is campaigning for Black candidates this year, argue that identity matters in American politics, and that Republicans simply approach it differently.

Because Florida leans Republican and polls favor Donalds, his path to a win is clear. James would need a large shift among Michigan voters in the final days. Polls can miss, and the polling in both states has been inconsistent. Both races are close enough that turnout could decide them. Results are expected the night of Nov. 3.