Sharp Decline Attributed to Trump Administration's Immigration Enforcement Policies

Washington, D.C. – January 14, 2026 – The United States experienced negative net migration in 2025 — meaning more people left the country than entered — for the first time in at least half a century, according to a new analysis from the Brookings Institution.

The report, released on January 13, 2026, by economists Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson of Brookings, along with Stan Veuger of the American Enterprise Institute, estimates that net migration ranged from negative 10,000 to negative 295,000 for the calendar year 2025. This marks a dramatic reversal from recent years, when net inflows reached highs such as around 2.8 million in 2024.

The shift is largely driven by the Trump administration's aggressive immigration crackdown, which included near-closure measures at the U.S.-Mexico border, suspension of many humanitarian programs (such as most refugee admissions, with limited exceptions), restrictions on temporary visas, and increased enforcement leading to removals and voluntary departures.

The authors note that deportations and removals in 2025 totaled between 310,000 and 315,000 — only slightly higher than the approximately 285,000 recorded in 2024 — with a notable portion initiated by U.S. Customs and Border Protection from within the country's interior rather than solely by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

This development has significant macroeconomic implications. The Brookings analysis warns that the slowdown in migration will dampen labor force growth, with sustainable monthly job creation potentially falling to between 20,000 and 50,000 in late 2025 and possibly turning negative in 2026. Consumer spending is projected to decline by an estimated $60 billion to $110 billion over 2025 and 2026 combined, particularly affecting businesses that serve immigrant communities, and contributing to weaker GDP growth.

While some earlier projections and White House statements anticipated or celebrated the possibility of negative net migration as a policy success, the Brookings update provides one of the most comprehensive post-year assessments to date. Other estimates, including those from the Congressional Budget Office, have varied, with some suggesting modestly positive net migration for 2025, though all agree on a sharp drop from prior years.

The last period of sustained negative net migration in U.S. history dates back to the Great Depression era in the 1930s, though reliable annual data from the past 50 years consistently showed positive inflows.

This milestone underscores the profound impact of immigration policy changes on America's demographic and economic trajectory, as the nation continues to grapple with aging populations and labor market needs. Official Census Bureau revisions and further data releases are expected to refine these figures in the coming months.